We are currently living in exciting times. In addition to the ongoing armed conflicts, which carry significant implications not only in Europe but worldwide, it seems that history might be repeating itself.

The current President of the United States announced on April 2, 2025, at 4 PM local time in Washington, DC, tariffs on most countries that export goods to the United States in one way or another.

The tariffs are individually set but are based on the trade deficit between goods and services imported into and exported from the United States.

As expected, reactions have been very individual. China immediately announced a reciprocal tariff at the same rate (34%).

How could the current events be interpreted? A similar situation at the end of the 1920s and early 1930s led to a global economic recession. The tariffs imposed by President Hoover at the time were not the only cause of that situation – that would be an oversimplification. However, voices are being raised now, forecasting either a recession or even a collapse of the global economy.

Let’s put aside the “Crash Prophets” for a moment and try to look at the situation logically.

So, what could the plan behind this be?

Consideration 1: Deals or a generally faster “movement” of the global economy.

From experience, we all know that changes in the global economy move very slowly. There is always a long process of surveying, talking, consulting, then negotiating, re-surveying, and final decisions are often still far off.

When is this not the case? In times of crisis. Once a critical situation arises, suddenly solutions can be found much faster.

With the tariffs, President Trump has artificially created such a situation. The world is in turmoil, and rapid solutions are being sought. President Trump has also mentioned a way the tariffs could disappear: through deals.

The appropriate metaphor could be ice cubes. In the right environment and with the right handling, they will disappear on their own.

Consideration 2: A deliberately triggered major correction of the stock market.

Why would a president intentionally cause a major correction in the stock market and destroy wealth?

Experience shows that after every major correction or crash, the stock market has recovered, and more wealth was present afterward than before.

So, what’s the thinking behind this? The United States is heavily in debt. Accordingly, interest payments are very high, which results in a long-term delay in repaying the liabilities.

An artificially triggered correction in the stock market could lead to a reduction in interest rates, resulting in lower interest rates and thus a lower proportion of interest payments.

The debts could be repaid more quickly (this is a much-simplified view).

Even though it may not seem that way now, this could turn out to be a very smart move by the president in hindsight.

The future will show in which direction the current situation will evolve.